理解前沿 AI：剑桥 CASP 评估 AI 研发自动化与"智能爆炸"风险及政策应对
Understanding Frontier Artificial Intelligence
剑桥大学 CASP 发表论文称，AI 系统目前已能编写 AI 公司内部大部分代码，预计几年内可能自动化大部分乃至全部 AI 研发工作，从而触发将数年技术进步压缩到数月以内的"智能爆炸"。论文警告这一情景可能造成人类对超级 AI 系统失控、各国与企业间的权力制衡被严重侵蚀等极端后果，呼吁政策制定者加强对 AI 研发自动化的可见度并建立引导与约束机制。
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Research Article
What if automating AI R&D triggers an intelligence explosion?
Alan Chan, Christoph Winter, Andrew Barto, Jakub Pachocki, Geoffrey Hinton, Eric Horvitz, Yoshua Bengio, Dawn Song, Jack Clark, Hilary Greaves, Anton Korinek, Samuel Hammond, Thore Graepel, Ben Bariach, Philip H. S. Torr, Sheila A. McIlraith, Jeff Clune, Sam Manning, Girish Sastry, Tom Davidson, Daniel Eth, Sören Mindermann
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Abstract
In contrast to even a year ago, AI systems now write most of the code inside the companies that build them. As more of the AI research and development (R&D) pipeline is automated, could AI progress radically accelerate in an “intelligence explosion,” where years of advances are compressed into months or less? Preliminary evidence suggests that it could. In this work, we assess this evidence, analyze an intelligence explosion’s potential impacts, and propose policy responses. AI systems are on track to automate most AI R&D work within a few years, and possibly all of it. If this triggers an intelligence explosion, it could dramatically bring forward AI’s benefits, but also pose extreme risks: capabilities growth could accelerate far beyond what society can keep up with, humanity could lose control over superhuman AI systems, and checks on power within and between states, companies, and branches of government could be severely eroded. Although there remains much uncertainty about these possibilities, the high stakes warrant serious further attention. Policymakers should urgently obtain more visibility into the automation of AI R&D, develop ways to steer and constrain an intelligence explosion, and prepare society to adapt to an intelligence explosion’s impacts.
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来源：Hacker News · casp.ac